Sunday, April 1, 2007
The Boston Red Sox season starts Monday in Kansas City.
How will they do this year? Ask General Manager Theo Epstein that question and he will show why he is no dummy.
"Ask me in six months," Epstein said.
That is a long time from now. There will be 162 games played, and several stories to follow.
Here is a look at our top 10 stories, for now:
Back Where He Belongs
Funny how the Red Sox kept their little secret about Jonathan Papelbon's shoulder to themselves. While fans fretted over his seemingly frail shoulder, Papelbon worked hard in rehab and reported to camp with one of the strongest shoulders on the team.
There was no need for Papelbon to give up his closer role for the starting rotation. But the Red Sox did not move Papelbon back to the bullpen until 10 days ago.
With Papelbon as the anchor, the bullpen suddenly looked a lot better.
Stubborn Is As Stubborn Does
Josh Beckett is strong, determined and sometimes too stubborn for his own good.
Beckett likes to throw his fastball as hard as possible. The result is that it sails in straight and usually flies out (to the tune of 36 home runs against him). Yes, Beckett won 16 games last year, but he can thank the Boston offense because he had a 5.01 ERA.
If Beckett pitches instead of throws, the ERA and home-run numbers go down.
Old Men On The Mound
Curt Schilling and Tim Wakefield are both 40. Wakefield is coming off an injury-plagued year, and Schilling did not report to training camp in great shape (although he pitched fine, with a 1.71 ERA).
Epstein said a key to winning is for the starters to "take the ball and not miss starts."
If Schilling and Wakefield keep taking their turns in the rotation, that must be a good thing.
Rolling The Dice-K
The biggest story is how Japanese sensation Daisuke Matsuzaka adjusts to major league hitters. He's got good stuff and, even when he doesn't have it, Matsuzaka has shown the ability to still win. There are concerns over durability. Matsuzaka, 26, has thrown a lot of innings in his career. And he is moving into a five-man rotation after pitching once a week in Japan.
Taking The Fifth
With Papelbon back in the bullpen, the starting rotation weakened. How many people are really comfortable with Julian Tavarez as the fifth starter? Who knows? Maybe he keeps up the roll he finished 2006 with. If not, Jon Lester may be a month away. (And can we please not submerge ourselves into rumors about Roger Clemens?)
Hit Softly And Carry A Big Mitt
Catchers Jason Varitek and Doug Mirabelli left Florida with a .221 batting average. That's COMBINED. Varitek hit .103, Mirabelli .118. Varitek normally does not hit well in spring training but, following a year when he batted .238, there are concerns. Mirabelli (.193) is on a downward slide. Varitek turns 35 in April. Mirabelli is 36.
Won't You Take Me To Manny-Town?
When will the first Manny moment cause disruption in the clubhouse? No one knows with Manny Ramirez. What is known is that Boston needs him in the cleanup spot. He protects David Ortiz, batting third, and he makes J.D. Drew a better hitter at No. 5.
Ortiz is almost taken for granted and the hope is that Drew is worth his millions. As for Manny, who knows?
Give 'em The Old 1-2, 1-2
Boston's lineup has a nice 1-2 beginning and a possibly effective 1-2 ending.
At the top, Boston's plan is for leadoff hitter Julio Lugo to reach base and be a threat to steal, with Kevin Youkilis seeing a lot of pitches.
Don't expect to see Lugo stealing a lot -- not with Ortiz coming up -- but the threat alone can be disruptive.
At the bottom of the order, Coco Crisp will bat eighth. He, too, is a speed threat, and No. 9 batter Dustin Pedroia makes contact.
The other good part of this scenario is that Youkilis and Pedroia will see more fastballs.
The New Guy
Not many rookies jump into the everyday lineup. The Red Sox have faith in Pedroia at second base, despite his .191 average during his late-season call-up last season.
"We saw a guy last year pressing," Epstein said. "We will be able to give Dustin plenty of breathing room."
By that, Epstein means the pressure should not be so high on Pedroia, since he is batting ninth and will occasionally be spelled by Alex Cora.
Mr. Invisible
With so much attention on the new players and the old/new closer, Youkilis has played quietly in the background while hitting .385 this spring. Youkilis has always played while others doubted him, whether it be as an everyday player or as a first baseman, a position usually reserved for power hitters.
Youkilis, who hit 13 home runs, does not have to hit with a lot of power in this lineup. Last year, Youkilis faded at the end of the season, but still ranked seventh in the American League in walks (91), eighth in doubles (42) and 14th in on-base percentage (.381).
He could break out in this, his second full season.
As for the Red Sox, could they break out and enjoy a glorious season?
Check back in six months.
Staff Writer Kevin Thomas can be reached at 791-6411 or at:
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